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The Fall of Christianity?

By mindpixel in mindpixel's Diary
Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 03:40:08 AM EST
Tags: (all tags)

I'm working on an article for Mindjack.com called "The Fall of Christianity? -- How a Dominant Religious Force could become an obscure, Marginal Jesus Movement ...." which is based on Rodney Stark's very good book "Rise of Christianity : How to obscure, Marginal Jesus Movement Became the Dominant Religious Force ...." where he theorized a major reason for the growth of Christianity is that they survived the plague better than the pagans. He said this was because the Christians took care of the sick, while the pagans just abandoned them. It now seems that congration itself is now very dangeous with SARS and the whole thing could start reversing itself.

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comments (24)

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Here's my interview request to Dr. Stark:
>> From: Chris McKinstry
>> Date: Thu, 17 Apr 2003 23:43:33 -0400
>> To: Rodney Stark
>> Subject: SARS Outbreak/Christians in Toronto
>>
>> Dr. Stark,
>>
>> I was wondering if I could ask you some questions on the SARS outbreak in
>> Toronto for an article I am working on for Mindjack Magazine
>> (www.mindjack.com).
>>
>> I don't know if you are aware, but the possibility that severe acute
>> respiratory syndrome could be spreading to the Toronto population at large
>> increased significantly with the news that 500 members of a Catholic group
>> called the BLD Covenant had been exposed to the disease March 28 and may
>> have passed it to others.
>>
>> The BLD Covenant, has its roots in the Philippines and some of its members
>> are Filipino. Before the quarantine instructions for the group were made
>> public, leaders expressed concern to Toronto public health officials that
>> they would suffer - just as Toronto's Chinese community has - if their
>> identity was made public.
>>
>> It seems at first glance to be the reversal of the Plague situation that you
>> have theorized to be a major component in the rise of Christianity.
>>
>> Thank you,
>>
>> Chris McKinstry

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Poll

How many people will die of SARS by the end of 2005?

< 1K 30%

1 - 9K 30%

10 - 99K 10%

> 1M 30%

> 10M 0%

> 100M 0%

> 1G 0%

Votes: 10
Results | Other Polls

Related Links

Mindjack.c om
mindpixel's Diary

The Fall of Christianity? | 25 comments (25 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Isn't this a little premature? (5.00 / 3) (#1)
by jjayson on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 03:46:18 AM EST

After all, how many people have dies for SARS so far? Maybe you should hold off on your story for at least a year or else you are just writing wild speculation.
_______
_{Smile =)

* bt krav magas kitten THE FUCK UP

<bt> Eat Kung Jew, bitch.}

Wild Speculation (none / 0) (#2)
by mindpixel on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 03:54:43 AM EST

The issue is: more than 300 people are infected in Toronto ALL FROM ONE PERSON. The epidemic is already past its 5th generation. This thing is insanely contagious!

Toronto is about to get a massive surge in infections due to the BLD Church group's 500 members running around the city with 30 members infected! If one person ignited the 300 infections to date, we should see 9,000 in the next round... It's out of control as will be plain in ten days.

If it is like the common cold (and it is - it's a coronavirus too) EVERYONE will get it. And 5 to 10 % WILL DIE. (The death rate in Canada is almost 9.5 % compared to about 5 % everywhere else.) That my friends mean between 300 and 600 million dead.

[ Parent ]

But (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by skim123 on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:05:32 AM EST

your figures assume no cure is found, or at least no methods are found for making it lethal only in a much smaller percentage. Personally, I am going to put a bit more faith in medical science than you. Here's hoping I'm right and you're wrong! :-)

Money is in some respects like fire; it is a very excellent servant but a terrible master.
PT Barnum

[ Parent ]

A cure... (none / 0) (#4)
by mindpixel on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:11:04 AM EST

Cure a common cold? Don't think so.

I certainly hope you're right...but this thing kills so fast and spreads even faster, medical science might not get a chance.

Watch '12 Monkeys' for a glimps of the near future and 'Quest for Fire' for something a little more down the road...

[ Parent ]

Ah. (none / 0) (#7)
by i on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:26:59 AM EST

Given letality rate of common cold can you justify (possibly huge) cost of developing an effective cure for it?
^{^{—
and we have a contradicton according to our assumptions and the factor theorem}}
[ Parent ]

A vaccine? (none / 0) (#10)
by mindpixel on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:45:03 AM EST

There have been recent calls from the Canadian scientific community for the government to quickly put up $100 million to develope a vaccine. But, even if the requested money comes through tomorrow, we're still going to see a lot of dead people.

I think the people who voted for < 1K deaths from SARS on the poll, are way way out of line. Scientists don't scream for $100 million for 1K people.

[ Parent ]

genetic thoughts (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by dzimmerm on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:43:01 AM EST

A disease that is very lethal usually mutates quickly to a less lethal version. This virus will probably mutate to the point where it is only mildly annoying. The problem is that this virus looks like it came from non humans and it has yet to adjust itself to our species.

The virus needs hosts to live and if it kills hosts quickly it dies. The strains that do not kill the hosts will become more dominent and soon you are left with only the annoying strains.

That coupled with the fact that the annoying strais will give you an immunity to the lethal strains should cause this outbreak to self correct.

On the other hand we may end up with a cure for the common cold out of all this hoopla.

[ Parent ]

Usually... (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by mindpixel on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:49:05 AM EST

That's the theory...BUT...

Doctors fear virus gaining potency as it mutates

This bug is just not playing fair.

[ Parent ]

Modern living (none / 0) (#12)
by dzimmerm on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 05:04:30 AM EST

Perhaps modern living with its fast pace is at fault. Many folks now get less than average sleep and eat food with dubious nutritional content.

It is common to go to work sick as companies have tightened down on the number of sick days allowed per year.

With both couples in many mariages working and children with busy schedules the simple act of getting a good nights sleep and eating serveral healthy meals is very rare.

Maybe SARS will be a sanity check against what we are willing to give up to get ahead financially.

[ Parent ]

A cure, maybe not... (none / 0) (#13)
by skim123 on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 05:20:57 AM EST

... but a way to handle it, to lower the fatality rate, this I suspect will come. Hopefully. I still think it's way too early to begin spouting off the "12 Monkeys" line.

Money is in some respects like fire; it is a very excellent servant but a terrible master.
PT Barnum

[ Parent ]

Falling into the Matrix... (none / 0) (#14)
by mindpixel on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 05:25:15 AM EST

If we can develope a vaccine or slow the spread, then a large number of people will still die in the near future, as it will take time to deploy. But, at least eventually we wil worry about it as much as we worry about Polio now.

If we don't develope a vaccine, the world will split. The rich will stay in their houses and telecommute and the poor will just die. No one will touch anything in public and air travel will be over. Virtual reality will be the only civilized reality. We will fall inot the matrix.

[ Parent ]

Perhaps you've watched too many movies (none / 0) (#15)
by skim123 on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 05:30:23 AM EST

Tell you what, if SARS devistates the world's population (say by 10%, or 600,000,000 fatalities), I owe you a Coke. If it kills, say, less than 0.01% of the world's population (that's 6,500,000 folks), then you owe me a Coke. And, if it falls somewhere in between, we'll call it even. Sound good?

Money is in some respects like fire; it is a very excellent servant but a terrible master.
PT Barnum

[ Parent ]

Either way... (none / 0) (#17)
by mindpixel on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 05:36:25 AM EST

I'm not touching your coke and you shouldn't want to touch mine...

[ Parent ]

Can I have a Cherry Coke? (none / 0) (#19)
by Legato Bluesummers on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 11:25:13 AM EST

--And many people have ended up looking very stupid, or dead, or both.
[ Parent ]

CNN reports a huge increase in SARS cases (none / 0) (#6)
by mindpixel on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:23:50 AM EST

CNN, just now:

BEIJING, China (CNN) -- China's health ministry has reported a dramatic increase in cases of the SARS virus, with at least 402 suspected infections in Beijing alone and 12 new deaths.

...

[ Parent ]

the sky is falling, the sky is falling (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by metalgeek on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:20:37 AM EST

from what I've heard, it's not 300 people infected, comeone, theres only a 1500 odd worldwide. as well, the total is 4% of people who get it die. thats it. the plagues where up at 25-33% at least, higher some places.. influenza has killed more people since the start of the year than sars has. http://www.cbc.ca/news/indepth/background/sars_cases.html 105 probably cases in ontario, and 139 suspected.

"K5 is a site where users have the motto 'Anyone Who Isn't Me Is An Idiot, And Anyone Who Disagrees With Me Is Gay'." skyknight
[ Parent ]

Cases (according to WHO) (none / 0) (#8)
by mindpixel on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 04:33:51 AM EST

Actually it's 3700 world wide and 306 in Canada. The death rate is 9.5% in Canada:

China

Cases*: 1,485**

Deaths: 67

Recovered: 1,126

Quarantined: -

Hong Kong

Cases*: 1,327

Deaths: 69

Recovered: 272

Quarantined: 400

Singapore

Cases*: 172

Deaths: 14

Recovered: 97

Quarantined: 444

Canada

Cases*: 306

Deaths: 13

Recovered: 27

Quarantined: 10,000

Vietnam

Cases*: 68***

Deaths: 5

Recovered: 53

Quarantined: -

United States

Cases*: 35

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: 1,713

Taiwan

Cases*: 29

Deaths: 0

Recovered: 16

Quarantined: -

Thailand

Cases*: 8

Deaths: 2

Recovered: 5

Quarantined: -

Malaysia

Cases*: 7

Deaths: 1

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

Germany

Cases*: 6

Deaths: 0

Recovered: 4

Quarantined: -

United Kingdom

Cases*: 6

Deaths: 0

Recovered: 3

Quarantined: -

France

Cases*: 5

Deaths: 0

Recovered: 1

Quarantined: -

Sweden

Cases*: 4

Deaths: 0

Recovered: 2

Quarantined: -

Italy

Cases*: 3

Deaths: 0

Recovered: 2

Quarantined: -

Australia

Cases*: 3

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

Brazil

Cases*: 2

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

Indonesia

Cases*: 1

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

Ireland

Cases*: 1

Deaths: 0

Recovered: 1

Quarantined: -

Kuwait

Cases*: 1

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

Philippines

Ireland

Cases*: 1

Deaths: 0

Recovered: 1

Quarantined: -

Romania

Cases*: 1

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

South Africa

Cases*: 1

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

Spain

Cases*: 1

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

Switzerland

Cases*: 1

Deaths: 0

Recovered: -

Quarantined: -

Total Cases*: 3,474

Total Deaths: 171

*Cases include number of deaths.

**World Health Organization experts have accused China of under-reporting cases in Beijing. Beijing authorities claim 37 cases while WHO believes there are up to 200 in the Chinese capital.

***Some 50 people have also been isolated in Vietnam's Ninh Binh province. Canadian figure includes suspected or probable cases. Cases in Australia, Malaysia, South Africa and Sweden are probable and the case in Spain has not been confirmed.

[ Parent ]

You're assuming that ... (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by pyramid termite on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 12:11:29 PM EST

... all cases of SARS have been detected, aren't you? For all we know, some SARS victims may experience it as a slight cold or 24 hour bug and not even realize they've had it. There's tons of odd little bugs floating around that people get and don't know what it is.

On the Internet, anyone can accuse you of being a dog.
[ Parent ]

lol (none / 0) (#16)
by tang gnat on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 05:32:30 AM EST

I think both of you have taken stereotypes a bit too far.

SARS (none / 0) (#18)
by tokugawa on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 08:53:17 AM EST

IS NOTHING TO BE WORRIED BOUT, MATE. BE STRONG, STAY WARM, AND KEEP THE SPICES FLOWIN.

Stupid (none / 0) (#21)
by wij on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 03:19:38 PM EST

That was then, this is now. Everyone cares for their sick now, regardless if they're Christian or not.
Assuming that all Christians get infected with SARS, and no people of other religions get infected, and assuming that the 9.5% SARS death rate you quoted remains constant, SARS won't turn Christianity into a "Marginal Jesus Movement." There are about 2 billion Christians. If 9.5% of them died, there would be 1.81 billion Christians, which would still easily make Christians the world's largest religious group.

"I am an intellectual of great merit, yet I am not adequately compensated for this by capitalism; this is the reason for my opposition to it."

Fall of Religion as we know it... (none / 0) (#23)
by mindpixel on Mon Apr 21, 2003 at 03:59:58 AM EST

My point being:

If the common cold kills...society will fail in exactly the reverse process in which it was built...eveyone will stay home, the only Churches will be virtual (like k5), and the poor will die in the streets.

[ Parent ]

SARS (none / 0) (#25)
by wij on Mon Apr 21, 2003 at 06:10:56 PM EST

The influenza pandemic of 1918 (which is the most similar to the worst case SARS scenarios) did not cause society to fail in the reverse process that it was built. People died, the people that lived became immune to that particular strain, and the next mutations of the flu virus were as lethal. People will die of SARS, the people who get it and live will become immune this particular strain, and the next mutation of the cold virus is probably not going to be as lethal.

One unusually lethal strain of a common virus is not nearly enough to do what you describe. Your point relies on the assumption that future cold viruses will continue to be as lethal, and that is not a prudent assumption to make, unless you aspire to be a scaremongering talking head on television.

"I am an intellectual of great merit, yet I am not adequately compensated for this by capitalism; this is the reason for my opposition to it."
[ Parent ]

sounds like... (1.00 / 1) (#22)
by damballah on Sun Apr 20, 2003 at 03:34:49 PM EST

those zealots that say: "it's in Apocalypse xxx verse xxx and it's happening NOW!" got to u. too bad, most of them r actually wrong. it's a numerically proven fact that interpolation is a very dangerous thing to do.

*******************************************
" I apologize for this long comment. I didn't have the time to make it any shorter. " - Blaise Pascal

" zombie accounts promote an unhealthy interest in the occult among our younger readers. " -

New MUCH high SARS death rate! (none / 0) (#24)
by mindpixel on Mon Apr 21, 2003 at 08:03:06 AM EST

Ah....

"Mortality rates are usually calculated on patients whose outcome is known," said Dr. Henry Niman, a surgery instructor at the Harvard/Massachusetts General Hospital. "(The CDC's number [4%] ) would be accurate only if all patients hospitalized survived, which has not been the history of the disease in the more heavily affected areas."

Instead, some say the rate should be calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the sum of the number of deaths plus the number of people who recovered, which would exclude those people who are still sick, resulting in a higher death rate.

According to Niman's math, the death rate in Hong Kong would be 25 percent, in Canada 21 percent, in Singapore 15 percent and in Vietnam 10 percent. In China, the death rate would be only 5 percent.

From:

http://www.wired.com/news/medtech/0,1286,58552,00.html

The Fall of Christianity? | 25 comments (25 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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